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黄宗智:新综合性视野和远瞻性愿景

时间:2020-07-22 05:29:16 作者:黄宗智来源:爱思想


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  [1] Anderson 2017 是个充满启发的关于全球的霸权概念的历史回顾和论析。

  [2] 关于一带一路的示意图,可以参考http://www.52maps.com/ditu_yidaiyilu.php。本文不将详细讨论另外两大相关议题:一是中国和东南亚各国( “东南亚国家联盟” ASEAN), 在2010年建立了 “自由贸易区”, 如今也是一带一路计划的重要组成部分。二是中国和 “东亚”国家——特别是日本、韩国和朝鲜的关联。其核心主题也是推进互利的贸易发展,对后发展国家来说,更包括中国在建立基础设施方面的协助。

  [3] 最近,有论者从地方政府由于过分的竞争而采用了不经济的政府补贴手段的角度来批评渝新欧铁路(Tjia 2020)。但在笔者看来,从更宽阔的视野来看,推进基础设施建设来推动进一步的贸易发展是无可厚非的。至于地方政府间的竞争,固然有其过分的个别案例,但总体来说,它仍然无疑乃是中国发展中的一个关键机制(黄宗智2019a; 周黎安2019)

  [4] 这里,中国遭遇到印度的相应竞争,在距离瓜达尔港仅80公里的伊朗东南岸建设沙巴哈尔港,目的在与伊朗联同扩大与阿富汗、土库曼斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦的连接和贸易。

  [5] 一个相关的建设工程是斯里兰卡南岸的汉班托特港,对中国发展之进入印度洋区域具有显然的商业和战略性价值。在该地前总统拉贾帕克萨的积极催促(为的是发展其家乡)之下,过急地加快了比原来计划要快得多的建设和投资,导致斯里兰卡陷入严重的拖欠,不能偿还债款,结果将该港租赁给中国,联带其管理权。美国的主流论析者将这一切(不无讽刺自身意味地)构建为中国的一种阴谋性“贷款陷阱”——使人联想起西方自身的帝国主义-殖民主义过去(Chatzky and McBride, 2020; Abi-Habib, 2018)。对中国来说,也许最重要的教训是,这样的工程是不能操之过急的。

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